Just in time, as the oil price was becoming unbearable for most of the Middle Eastern economy, Israel decided all-out-war against Hamas(code-named Operation Cast Lead), threatening to render the whole region unstable. An unstable middle-east(with Syria's and Iran's involvement) will put uncertainity for the supply side and has the potential to stall the oil's decline.
However, on the other side, with Gas-Guzzlers(GM, Ford) struggling in the US, and China resorting to contango, the demand is much weaker than expected, and will be so for first/second quarter of 2009.
So does Operation Cast Lead make any sense for now? wouldn't it be better if the operation is commenced in second-quarter 2009 ?
It's all about Oil, it's all about money!! Who cares how many die, and how many live ?
Tuesday, December 30, 2008
Saturday, December 6, 2008
not an answer
"Help your brother whether he is an oppressor or is an oppressed person."
- hadith(237) Holy Q'ran.
Amid the ongoing tension between India and Pakistan. A very critical parameter is being ignored. The fact that both the countries have sprung out of the same empire, and both share a significant chunk of their history, and culture. An India-Pakistan war will not only be devastating to the region, but will be very damaging to the entire world.
Mumbai terror attacks will go down on the pages of history as one of the most degrading and most demeaning act against human dignity. Whatever may would have been the driving factor behind this, be it Jamaat-ud-Dawa's attempt to gain a global limelight, or be it Al-Qaida's attempt to divert the focus from Afganistan/Pakistan border to India/Pakistan Border. The intention cannot be greater than humanity's objective of peace, and stability. The reason for the attack cannot be greater than the will of the humanity to prosper, to seek peace, and to survive.
War is not an answer.
- hadith(237) Holy Q'ran.
Amid the ongoing tension between India and Pakistan. A very critical parameter is being ignored. The fact that both the countries have sprung out of the same empire, and both share a significant chunk of their history, and culture. An India-Pakistan war will not only be devastating to the region, but will be very damaging to the entire world.
Mumbai terror attacks will go down on the pages of history as one of the most degrading and most demeaning act against human dignity. Whatever may would have been the driving factor behind this, be it Jamaat-ud-Dawa's attempt to gain a global limelight, or be it Al-Qaida's attempt to divert the focus from Afganistan/Pakistan border to India/Pakistan Border. The intention cannot be greater than humanity's objective of peace, and stability. The reason for the attack cannot be greater than the will of the humanity to prosper, to seek peace, and to survive.
War is not an answer.
Tuesday, October 28, 2008
tell you why?
"Round and round
With love we'll find a way just give it time
Round and round
What comes around goes around
I'll tell you why"
- a song from Metal group Ratt.
The hindu mythology suggests that the god(or the supreme authority behind everything in this universe) is actually riding on a chariot and we all are entwined to the wheel of this chariot. Everything, we know of, undergoes the active cycle of creation, existence, growth, and subsequent destruction. Perhaps, the idea behind the concept of wheel of fortune.
Markets, off lately, have been stuck at a wrong end of the cycle, where no-one is feeling confident enough to move-on. The developed economy have deleveraged all(most) of the bets on the market, and are waiting on the emerging economy to boost them up. While the emerging economy is being damaged by the very process of deleveraging, leading to a crisis situation with liquidity, which is slowing down their progress significantly.
Amidst this deadlock, which is fueled by lack of enough reason to let them make the first move, something unreasonable has to lead the way.
Will the festival of Dipawali, boosting Sensex by 550+ points act as a trigger, which will end this vicious cycle of fear in the market?
Hope so, and wish everyone a very happy dipawali.
With love we'll find a way just give it time
Round and round
What comes around goes around
I'll tell you why"
- a song from Metal group Ratt.
The hindu mythology suggests that the god(or the supreme authority behind everything in this universe) is actually riding on a chariot and we all are entwined to the wheel of this chariot. Everything, we know of, undergoes the active cycle of creation, existence, growth, and subsequent destruction. Perhaps, the idea behind the concept of wheel of fortune.
Markets, off lately, have been stuck at a wrong end of the cycle, where no-one is feeling confident enough to move-on. The developed economy have deleveraged all(most) of the bets on the market, and are waiting on the emerging economy to boost them up. While the emerging economy is being damaged by the very process of deleveraging, leading to a crisis situation with liquidity, which is slowing down their progress significantly.
Amidst this deadlock, which is fueled by lack of enough reason to let them make the first move, something unreasonable has to lead the way.
Will the festival of Dipawali, boosting Sensex by 550+ points act as a trigger, which will end this vicious cycle of fear in the market?
Hope so, and wish everyone a very happy dipawali.
Wednesday, September 24, 2008
To be or Not to be.
To be, or not to be: that is the question:
Whether 'tis nobler in the mind to suffer
The slings and arrows of outrageous fortune,
Or to take arms against a sea of troubles,
And by opposing end them?
- Hamlet (Act III, Scene II).
As ancient as the wisdom of the 1600s sounds, the question still remains unanswered. Let's consider the fate of CDS(Credit Default Swaps) - one of the instruments of today's economy, and representing 62 trillion$ worth of contract, well, before the bridge of cards came crashing down. Although this figure was an estimate, it tips the balance of financial stability in favor of resolved(enforced) determination.
As we know, CDS are vehicles of investments, which are built around a contract, using which one party transfers the so-called-question to another party, in return, swapping the methodology of payback against a reference obligation. As confusing as it sounds, the process(called derivative) distances the whole concept(of demand and supply) from the normal grasp of simple mathematics, and even confounds it. Everytime the question gets passed around, a part of the beast(called randomness) gets added to the equation.
Honestly, we, as human race, don't have enough resources(information) to tackle the mighty beast. As it is evident when we ask ourselves, how many of us actually understand the whole process and how many claim that we actually do? That's why we invented Money, we would say. Not to create equality but to amplify our free will.
Whether 'tis nobler in the mind to suffer
The slings and arrows of outrageous fortune,
Or to take arms against a sea of troubles,
And by opposing end them?
- Hamlet (Act III, Scene II).
As ancient as the wisdom of the 1600s sounds, the question still remains unanswered. Let's consider the fate of CDS(Credit Default Swaps) - one of the instruments of today's economy, and representing 62 trillion$ worth of contract, well, before the bridge of cards came crashing down. Although this figure was an estimate, it tips the balance of financial stability in favor of resolved(enforced) determination.
As we know, CDS are vehicles of investments, which are built around a contract, using which one party transfers the so-called-question to another party, in return, swapping the methodology of payback against a reference obligation. As confusing as it sounds, the process(called derivative) distances the whole concept(of demand and supply) from the normal grasp of simple mathematics, and even confounds it. Everytime the question gets passed around, a part of the beast(called randomness) gets added to the equation.
Honestly, we, as human race, don't have enough resources(information) to tackle the mighty beast. As it is evident when we ask ourselves, how many of us actually understand the whole process and how many claim that we actually do? That's why we invented Money, we would say. Not to create equality but to amplify our free will.
Tuesday, September 16, 2008
L'man's Demise
Starting the collapse of Lehman the stocks went tumbling down, on a roller-coaster drive, all around the world. Why should Fed play such a gamble and let one of the significant Financial Institution/Investment Banks die down to bankruptcy?
Finding out what changed since Bear-Sterns, may sort out the determination of Fed's Gamble.
- Inflation under control, at least in the US.
- Oil well below 100$.
- Dollar back in business against Euro/Yen.
- Lessened panic in commodities crisis of the last quarter.
- Enough time for Credit Mania and Financial turmoil to get factored-in.
Perhaps, Fed's decision to say NO was not such a bad Idea. In fact, it was a strong signal for other similar troubled financial firms that the only resort for them is to clean up their own mess, and not rely on "tax payer's money".
Moreover, after a sharp fall the stocks did stabilize. No-where to fall when you are already at the bottom.
Finding out what changed since Bear-Sterns, may sort out the determination of Fed's Gamble.
- Inflation under control, at least in the US.
- Oil well below 100$.
- Dollar back in business against Euro/Yen.
- Lessened panic in commodities crisis of the last quarter.
- Enough time for Credit Mania and Financial turmoil to get factored-in.
Perhaps, Fed's decision to say NO was not such a bad Idea. In fact, it was a strong signal for other similar troubled financial firms that the only resort for them is to clean up their own mess, and not rely on "tax payer's money".
Moreover, after a sharp fall the stocks did stabilize. No-where to fall when you are already at the bottom.
Sunday, June 1, 2008
Cantor's Aleph and Continuum
For us who may not be familiar with Cantor's Aleph, a brief description - Georg Cantor, a german mathematician, around late 1800, established an enumeration for infinite sets, and named them alephs.
His intution, though he couldn't prove it, that the total number of alephs are infinite and there is a definite order in which they all are arranged
where:
aleph[0] = set of all integers,
aleph[1] = set of all real numbers,
...,
aleph[aleph] = set of all alephs ( aka the GOD, if such an entity exists ).
and the proof of the ordering of aleph led to the famous continuum hypothesis. The rest is history.
There is a duality, left to imagination, of course, between the concept of alephs and the spectrum of human intelligence. The spectrum of human intelligence is likely to be infinite( IQ, EQ, BIQ, FIQ, MIQ... ). There seems to exist an ordering between these independent IQs, and apparently they lead us to believe that there is an Ultimate Intelligence, which encompasses all. But then thats better left to psychology or theology.
Talking of Financial Intelligence, our universities and curriculum has surely, failed to capture it. Why else do we have 7 college dropouts among top 10 Richest persons in this world ? Someday i'll figure out.
Pursuing my this fascination, I got involved with an innovative startup company, named 'Insight Guru Inc.' , which is being operated by an equally credible team. This team nurtures a concept to distrupt the process of financial analysis as is done today. Since my involvement with this team is very recent and brief, it may be unfair to disperse the information about it on a personal blog.
Still, I feel, this team and its product are at the edge of redefining the FIQ, for everyone as we know it. Keep an eye for this startup, if you are an investor or an analyst
His intution, though he couldn't prove it, that the total number of alephs are infinite and there is a definite order in which they all are arranged
where:
aleph[0] = set of all integers,
aleph[1] = set of all real numbers,
...,
aleph[aleph] = set of all alephs ( aka the GOD, if such an entity exists ).
and the proof of the ordering of aleph led to the famous continuum hypothesis. The rest is history.
There is a duality, left to imagination, of course, between the concept of alephs and the spectrum of human intelligence. The spectrum of human intelligence is likely to be infinite( IQ, EQ, BIQ, FIQ, MIQ... ). There seems to exist an ordering between these independent IQs, and apparently they lead us to believe that there is an Ultimate Intelligence, which encompasses all. But then thats better left to psychology or theology.
Talking of Financial Intelligence, our universities and curriculum has surely, failed to capture it. Why else do we have 7 college dropouts among top 10 Richest persons in this world ? Someday i'll figure out.
Pursuing my this fascination, I got involved with an innovative startup company, named 'Insight Guru Inc.' , which is being operated by an equally credible team. This team nurtures a concept to distrupt the process of financial analysis as is done today. Since my involvement with this team is very recent and brief, it may be unfair to disperse the information about it on a personal blog.
Still, I feel, this team and its product are at the edge of redefining the FIQ, for everyone as we know it. Keep an eye for this startup, if you are an investor or an analyst
Monday, May 19, 2008
Unleash of the demon
The sub-prime mortgage crises in the US and its effect on the global economy has unleashed a demon. The demon of continuously rising commodity(food) prices.
Since October'07 these prices have been soaring, non-stop. Looking at some of the parameters involved:
- perceived financial instability around the world led population intensive countries to hoard the commodities in an attempt to shield themselves from the inflationary effect.
- depletion of oil reserves put a pressure on the demand for bio-fuels thus increasing the corn prices. Demand for corn even led some south-american economy to shun soyabeans for corn(a very cautionary trend).
- Speculators, have always been behind any bubble. Gov. of India even had to put a ban on future trading of Rice and Wheat.
- China's emergence as an economy power. China now can be looked as a gateway which assists in echoing the effect of volatility in economies of the developed world to the developing nations. Redefining a truly connected world( for good and for the worse ).
This current food and agriculture crisis has become too complex, and beyond control of any one country's policy.
Welcome to The Mayhem.
Since October'07 these prices have been soaring, non-stop. Looking at some of the parameters involved:
- perceived financial instability around the world led population intensive countries to hoard the commodities in an attempt to shield themselves from the inflationary effect.
- depletion of oil reserves put a pressure on the demand for bio-fuels thus increasing the corn prices. Demand for corn even led some south-american economy to shun soyabeans for corn(a very cautionary trend).
- Speculators, have always been behind any bubble. Gov. of India even had to put a ban on future trading of Rice and Wheat.
- China's emergence as an economy power. China now can be looked as a gateway which assists in echoing the effect of volatility in economies of the developed world to the developing nations. Redefining a truly connected world( for good and for the worse ).
This current food and agriculture crisis has become too complex, and beyond control of any one country's policy.
Welcome to The Mayhem.
Wednesday, April 9, 2008
five points someone
Before I am accused of plagiarism against Chetan Bhagat, let me point out that though being from IIT, I missed the renowed position of being a five pointer by few points. not that I didn't try but that its tough.
This post, however, tries to deal with five questions that randomly cropped up at a recent office smalltalk. While talking to a colleague, recently at work, and in a humble effort to know her better. I asked her how would she rate herself on a scale of 1-10 for these:
-how passionate you are ?
-how indecisive you are ?
-how reluctant you are ?
-how wonderful you are ?
-how happy you are ?
her answers : 10, 5, 0, 0, 10.
I personally find a correlation between these five loosely defined emotional context of our personality. passions --leads to--> indecisiveness --causes--> reluctance -results in-> wonderment --is the core of --> happiness.
In an attempt to interpret her answers, I would say, she is, without any question, a wonderful person.
This post, however, tries to deal with five questions that randomly cropped up at a recent office smalltalk. While talking to a colleague, recently at work, and in a humble effort to know her better. I asked her how would she rate herself on a scale of 1-10 for these:
-how passionate you are ?
-how indecisive you are ?
-how reluctant you are ?
-how wonderful you are ?
-how happy you are ?
her answers : 10, 5, 0, 0, 10.
I personally find a correlation between these five loosely defined emotional context of our personality. passions --leads to--> indecisiveness --causes--> reluctance -results in-> wonderment --is the core of --> happiness.
In an attempt to interpret her answers, I would say, she is, without any question, a wonderful person.
Sunday, March 23, 2008
Irrational Dichotomy
Joseph LeDoux, a leading neuroscientist, specialising in the area of human brain's emotional response, points out that, in fact, there are two different paths along which the signals (electrical signals if you will) travel inside our brain in response to a stimuli.
The normal path which, starts from one of the five senses to the thalamus, to neocortex(rational center), which then distributes the appropriate response to other parts of the brain including the amygdala. This circuit is behind our rational decisions.
In addition to the normal path there is another short circuit tripwire which, extends from eyes/ears to thalamus then directly to the amygdala. Amygdala being the emotional center, this tripwire causes an emotional response to an sensory stimulus, and since this path is shorter than the normal one. our emotions are meant to supercede our rationality.
To make things worse the response from these two paths may even contradict themselves.
We are indeed hardwired, by nature's choice, to remain confused for most of the time, and at all of those moments to be equally irrational.
The normal path which, starts from one of the five senses to the thalamus, to neocortex(rational center), which then distributes the appropriate response to other parts of the brain including the amygdala. This circuit is behind our rational decisions.
In addition to the normal path there is another short circuit tripwire which, extends from eyes/ears to thalamus then directly to the amygdala. Amygdala being the emotional center, this tripwire causes an emotional response to an sensory stimulus, and since this path is shorter than the normal one. our emotions are meant to supercede our rationality.
To make things worse the response from these two paths may even contradict themselves.
We are indeed hardwired, by nature's choice, to remain confused for most of the time, and at all of those moments to be equally irrational.
Friday, March 14, 2008
Humpty Dumpty Greenback
'The Greenback' has sent a wave of concern across the entire geography, with its free-fall against a basket of currencies. Everyone is concerned, some are surprised and others in fear:
- surprised at why Fed is letting the fall, and
- fear at the possibility of the US recession getting replicated around the world because of the falling greenback.
Since dollar is the most dominant currency for trade across the world. Its fall has led to increase in every commodity price across the board, from the gold, to the oil, and to the corn.
How does it help Uncle Sam?
Well it brings in extra exports, since goods exported by the US become more competitive in the global market, this is supported by the recent data indicating reduced Trade Deficit.
At the time when nothing seems working for Uncle, neither retail numbers nor consumer confidence, An increased export may be bringing in some hope to curb the shrink of economy to some extent.
Imagine this:
Liquid dollar is flowing all over the floor seeping to every nook and corner of economic prosperity, turning them all green. May be Uncle Sam understands globalization better than anyone else.
- surprised at why Fed is letting the fall, and
- fear at the possibility of the US recession getting replicated around the world because of the falling greenback.
Since dollar is the most dominant currency for trade across the world. Its fall has led to increase in every commodity price across the board, from the gold, to the oil, and to the corn.
How does it help Uncle Sam?
Well it brings in extra exports, since goods exported by the US become more competitive in the global market, this is supported by the recent data indicating reduced Trade Deficit.
At the time when nothing seems working for Uncle, neither retail numbers nor consumer confidence, An increased export may be bringing in some hope to curb the shrink of economy to some extent.
Imagine this:
Liquid dollar is flowing all over the floor seeping to every nook and corner of economic prosperity, turning them all green. May be Uncle Sam understands globalization better than anyone else.
Monday, March 10, 2008
nice move still no donuts.
Mr Jobs, has finally laid down arms against the wider and much accepted community of jail-breakers. I being an iPhone user chose not to be a jail-breaker coz my phone had 1.1.2 when I bought it, and I didn't want to mess-up with the new equipment(reverting to 1.1.1).
This unfortunate decision has costed me a lot of agony. Every time I visit a flash or java applet, I regret my decision to not have jail-broken. The mental agony did hurt the most, when I recently installed 1.1.3 firmware upgrade ( approx 106 MB in size ), because this upgrade was backed by my enthusiam to find iPhone SDK, as announced by Mr. Jobs.
Alas, no SDK, no Flash, no Applet. What this new upgrade brought along with major bugfixes is 'The Paradox of Choice', at which Apple is so good at:
The choice to either wait for 1.1.5 or shift to BlackBerry.
WELL!!! iPhone sux.
This unfortunate decision has costed me a lot of agony. Every time I visit a flash or java applet, I regret my decision to not have jail-broken. The mental agony did hurt the most, when I recently installed 1.1.3 firmware upgrade ( approx 106 MB in size ), because this upgrade was backed by my enthusiam to find iPhone SDK, as announced by Mr. Jobs.
Alas, no SDK, no Flash, no Applet. What this new upgrade brought along with major bugfixes is 'The Paradox of Choice', at which Apple is so good at:
The choice to either wait for 1.1.5 or shift to BlackBerry.
WELL!!! iPhone sux.
Thursday, February 28, 2008
Dharm-k-shetre Kuru-k-shetre...
Dharm-k-shetre Kuru-k-shetre sam-veta yuyu-tsavah...
Chapter 1,Verse 1 of 'The Bhagvad Gita' translates to a question asked by the blind King to Sanjaya, "What was the outcome of the war ?" - past tense, for a future event! ( reminds of Stephen Hawkings' "Time Loops" ).
Either the king must have been really-really blind, or bhagvad gita may have been written to describe something other than a real-life battle-ground.
Strangely, so as it seems, the same question gets asked by our executive brain( read neocortex ), every time at the beginning of any decision making process. On being asked, various components of the brain report their causal states to the executive, and based on which a decision is made.
Now believe me, if you will, the decision-making-process, involving multiple independent agents is a strange beast. And when those agents have only partial information, the problem becomes too scary to be solved. No universal solution to such type of problem exists in real-time.
Every system(individual) has to approach the optimal solution, to such a problem, using some kind of heuristics.
Since, no universal solution exists, everyone has their own unique way to solve the conflicts they are going through, and its very tough, for any external entity, to gauge or even have a clue of what might be going on.
we all are the outcome of the continuous battle between various modules inside our heads ? Our state at any time is an equilibrium between multitude of utility functions. each of those functions driven by our varied emotions, desires, and expectations.
Try not to be rude to anyone, they all are fighting a war.
Chapter 1,Verse 1 of 'The Bhagvad Gita' translates to a question asked by the blind King to Sanjaya, "What was the outcome of the war ?" - past tense, for a future event! ( reminds of Stephen Hawkings' "Time Loops" ).
Either the king must have been really-really blind, or bhagvad gita may have been written to describe something other than a real-life battle-ground.
Strangely, so as it seems, the same question gets asked by our executive brain( read neocortex ), every time at the beginning of any decision making process. On being asked, various components of the brain report their causal states to the executive, and based on which a decision is made.
Now believe me, if you will, the decision-making-process, involving multiple independent agents is a strange beast. And when those agents have only partial information, the problem becomes too scary to be solved. No universal solution to such type of problem exists in real-time.
Every system(individual) has to approach the optimal solution, to such a problem, using some kind of heuristics.
Since, no universal solution exists, everyone has their own unique way to solve the conflicts they are going through, and its very tough, for any external entity, to gauge or even have a clue of what might be going on.
we all are the outcome of the continuous battle between various modules inside our heads ? Our state at any time is an equilibrium between multitude of utility functions. each of those functions driven by our varied emotions, desires, and expectations.
Try not to be rude to anyone, they all are fighting a war.
Sunday, February 24, 2008
To forgive is Divine
Recently, while returning home from a late nite pool game with office buddies, I was misguided to a very strange locality. I never would have know this place existed, if my GPS wouldn't have misled me. This normally happens when its cloudy and the GPS is unable to lock onto minimum of 4 satellites(that is for latitude, longitude, altitude and direction).
Anyhow, after roaming for a while, clueless, and not knowing which direction I was heading, I decided to stop, ask for directions and also get myself a coffee(yes, I do it whenever I am confused, which is virtually everytime - a starbucks gold customer you'd imagine).
The place was seven-eleven, I parked my vehicle, went in, made myself a french-vanilla flavor with columbian base, asked the lady behind the counter, which way is the beltway and headed out.
As I was heading to my vehicle, with a sense of conquest(Alexander too would have felt the same after venturing into unknown territory, i guess). A 12 year old came-up to me, and asked me if he can borrow some money. I politely retorted, 'why ?'
he said he would like to purchase something to eat.
I looked at my wallet, the minimum I had was a 10 dollar bill.
So, I said, 'buddy, let me buy you. what would you like to eat?'
Just as he was about to say something, a short-statured lady arrived at the scene, with another kid by her side. She repeated what the kid had said. I asked, 'ok, how much money you need?'.
she said 3 dollars. I replied I don't have three dollars.
Before I could even complete my statement. She started cursing me, 'Y'all foreigners. encroach our lands, take up our jobs. You won't even help us, when in need...'.
I just stood there not sure what should I say.
After a short pause, I continued, ' Mam, all I have is a 10 dollar bill. If you wish, I can purchase you something for 3 dollars, but I may not be able to lend 10 dollars.'
I was feeling bit like a nebbish as this was an unknown locality, and some of the areas in DC are not very friendly, if you don't belong there. Nonetheless, I kept my calm trying to shove off the warning from my uncle and my friends that I should not roam around in strange places. but I couldn't refrain from my urge to talk back. something she said just stuck in my head and I had to reply back.
So I said, 'Mam, I don't know what you see me as. I am here in a foreign land, far away from home, and parents. I hardly know many people here. Sometimes I find everything strange in your country. The weather, the language and even the people. I am here not to take up your jobs, I am here to do the job in a better way, and earn my share by doing so.'
She was bit amazed, and I could see the stern look in her eyes fade away. I bought them a coffee, and two doughnuts for $2.50.
As I was about to leave. she said, 'this is not a good place to be, for you, at this hour, hush off'.
I boldly replied back, 'if I weren't here. How would I have helped you ?'
I could see her blush and say, 'God, Bless!'.
so what's there to Imagine? I am glad that you asked!
Most of the hatred in the world seem to have cropped-up from mere misunderstandings. A little forgiveness from both sides , if not eliminate, should surely tone hatred down. We better do it sooner than later - before it gets encoded as an idiosyncrasy in our DNA.
Anyhow, after roaming for a while, clueless, and not knowing which direction I was heading, I decided to stop, ask for directions and also get myself a coffee(yes, I do it whenever I am confused, which is virtually everytime - a starbucks gold customer you'd imagine).
The place was seven-eleven, I parked my vehicle, went in, made myself a french-vanilla flavor with columbian base, asked the lady behind the counter, which way is the beltway and headed out.
As I was heading to my vehicle, with a sense of conquest(Alexander too would have felt the same after venturing into unknown territory, i guess). A 12 year old came-up to me, and asked me if he can borrow some money. I politely retorted, 'why ?'
he said he would like to purchase something to eat.
I looked at my wallet, the minimum I had was a 10 dollar bill.
So, I said, 'buddy, let me buy you. what would you like to eat?'
Just as he was about to say something, a short-statured lady arrived at the scene, with another kid by her side. She repeated what the kid had said. I asked, 'ok, how much money you need?'.
she said 3 dollars. I replied I don't have three dollars.
Before I could even complete my statement. She started cursing me, 'Y'all foreigners. encroach our lands, take up our jobs. You won't even help us, when in need...'.
I just stood there not sure what should I say.
After a short pause, I continued, ' Mam, all I have is a 10 dollar bill. If you wish, I can purchase you something for 3 dollars, but I may not be able to lend 10 dollars.'
I was feeling bit like a nebbish as this was an unknown locality, and some of the areas in DC are not very friendly, if you don't belong there. Nonetheless, I kept my calm trying to shove off the warning from my uncle and my friends that I should not roam around in strange places. but I couldn't refrain from my urge to talk back. something she said just stuck in my head and I had to reply back.
So I said, 'Mam, I don't know what you see me as. I am here in a foreign land, far away from home, and parents. I hardly know many people here. Sometimes I find everything strange in your country. The weather, the language and even the people. I am here not to take up your jobs, I am here to do the job in a better way, and earn my share by doing so.'
She was bit amazed, and I could see the stern look in her eyes fade away. I bought them a coffee, and two doughnuts for $2.50.
As I was about to leave. she said, 'this is not a good place to be, for you, at this hour, hush off'.
I boldly replied back, 'if I weren't here. How would I have helped you ?'
I could see her blush and say, 'God, Bless!'.
so what's there to Imagine? I am glad that you asked!
Most of the hatred in the world seem to have cropped-up from mere misunderstandings. A little forgiveness from both sides , if not eliminate, should surely tone hatred down. We better do it sooner than later - before it gets encoded as an idiosyncrasy in our DNA.
Friday, February 15, 2008
To err is Human
Being a computer engineer and after my introduction to computers in 1996, I have, since then, spent, on an average, 8-10 hrs daily with these mindlessly retarded, senselessly numb and mentally incompetent invention of humankind. The book-keeping equates, the time spent talking to computers, to approx.~39,420 hours from my limited lifetime. Not to mention the time spent dreaming about these computers during my initial years of fascination. off-lately these mind-paralyzed paraphernalia have become a nightmare(popping up every now and then with their deadlines), and, alas, this doesn't end here.
Although this sounds like a curse, it would be unjust not to reflect upon some of the positive aspects of my interactions with the ultimate invention.
I call this ultimate because I, personally, think all subsequent inventions will find their way only via these naturally unintelligent logic boxes. Some may disagree, as there is a school of thought, who consider that our belief in the present-day-logic is blinding us from the true reality.
The very important intuitive contribution to my awareness brought about by these binary idiots, is the differentiation between two aspects of my existence. The one aspect which is computable and the other which is non-computable. There are various different levels defined for consciousness between these two extremes, and this particular question is tackled by a separate stream of computer science now known as Emergence Theory.
To pursue meaning of computability, I'll refer to this masterpiece by Alan Turing. It has been one of my most favored antiques( which is also the foundation of computation as we know it) : http://readdle.com/s/1009943/40459.pdf
One of the very disturbing assumption( atleast for me ) in this document is the fact that human memory is necessarily limited.
Imagine This:
If human memory is limited, why all new-born infants( with presumably no-memory at all ) should cry? Are they all hard-wired to cry as soon as they are born? or do our memories extend beyond our known limits ?
Sunday, February 10, 2008
Forgetful Science
Its been found out that a normal human being remembers only 95% of events from the last day. This amounts to 5% of forgetfulness.
Imagine this:
If you are a normal human being and if you have something(someone) completely occupying your mind today.
How long it takes for you to forget completely.
1st day 95%
2nd day 95% . 95%
3rd day 95% . 95% . 95%
...
and so on.
amounts to ~ 280 days for complete erasure. whoever said: its tough to forget your past!
-- added 15th Feb --
so lets ask ourselves. was meeting them a waste of 280 days?
The Anatomy of Hope By Nancy S. Green, establishes the concepts of 'experience synthesis' and 'experience decay'.
The transition, from the time when an experience is introduced to the point in time when it decays completely, helps us model our persona and provides a key ingredient to our power of making choices.
And maybe someday we will find , that it wasn’t really
a Wasted time
Imagine this:
If you are a normal human being and if you have something(someone) completely occupying your mind today.
How long it takes for you to forget completely.
1st day 95%
2nd day 95% . 95%
3rd day 95% . 95% . 95%
...
and so on.
amounts to ~ 280 days for complete erasure. whoever said: its tough to forget your past!
-- added 15th Feb --
so lets ask ourselves. was meeting them a waste of 280 days?
The Anatomy of Hope By Nancy S. Green, establishes the concepts of 'experience synthesis' and 'experience decay'.
The transition, from the time when an experience is introduced to the point in time when it decays completely, helps us model our persona and provides a key ingredient to our power of making choices.
And maybe someday we will find , that it wasn’t really
a Wasted time
on the edge
MSFT's recent bid for YHOO has created so much uncertainity that the deal now looks in favor of GOOG. Uncertainity => fleeing investors => $40 Bn loss in terms of Market Cap for MSFT, already, since the day bid was made.
Lets look at some short term probabilities:
- YHOO rejects the offer ( high )
- AOL may make a similar bid ( very low)
- YHOO partial tie up with Google, where Y! outsources its search ( low)
- YHOO stays independent and opens its search to larger audience ( medium )
- Wait for MSFT to place another bid of $40/share ( high)
- MSFT makes a higher bid leading to further erosion of Market Cap (low)
- Hostile takeover at current price ( medium )
- Antitrust prevents the final deal ( medium)
where medium=0.3-0.4, High = >0.5, low = <0.2
Doing the Math: the probability of the final outcome(i.e. MSFT-YHOO ) = somewhere between low to medium ~ 0.3.
Is the deal worth waiting for ? we will find out tomorrow... or may be not!
Lets look at some short term probabilities:
- YHOO rejects the offer ( high )
- AOL may make a similar bid ( very low)
- YHOO partial tie up with Google, where Y! outsources its search ( low)
- YHOO stays independent and opens its search to larger audience ( medium )
- Wait for MSFT to place another bid of $40/share ( high)
- MSFT makes a higher bid leading to further erosion of Market Cap (low)
- Hostile takeover at current price ( medium )
- Antitrust prevents the final deal ( medium)
where medium=0.3-0.4, High = >0.5, low = <0.2
Doing the Math: the probability of the final outcome(i.e. MSFT-YHOO ) = somewhere between low to medium ~ 0.3.
Is the deal worth waiting for ? we will find out tomorrow... or may be not!
Tuesday, February 5, 2008
Open Sesame
I managed to venture across this article while digging for my past:
http://dqindia.ciol.com/content/industrymarket/focus/2005/105122501.asp
This article is almost three years old, published approximately at the same time, when embedx stalled its operations. The generalized verdict by the author didn't fail to amuze me. Capital infused by an Angel Investor is just the bootstrap. The real problem lies in our own market, and its perception of anything tagged 'Made In India'. Embedx was not a software company, it developed its own hardware, just so you may want to know.
Imagine this Mr. Writer!!
Did embedx pave the path for future incubation projects at IIMB? Venturing out at a time when starting a product development initiative in India was not more than a bad dream. I would say a nightmare, which was dreaded by even those who were well established(in terms of cash and or experience).
http://dqindia.ciol.com/content/industrymarket/focus/2005/105122501.asp
This article is almost three years old, published approximately at the same time, when embedx stalled its operations. The generalized verdict by the author didn't fail to amuze me. Capital infused by an Angel Investor is just the bootstrap. The real problem lies in our own market, and its perception of anything tagged 'Made In India'. Embedx was not a software company, it developed its own hardware, just so you may want to know.
Imagine this Mr. Writer!!
Did embedx pave the path for future incubation projects at IIMB? Venturing out at a time when starting a product development initiative in India was not more than a bad dream. I would say a nightmare, which was dreaded by even those who were well established(in terms of cash and or experience).
Sunday, January 13, 2008
The Flow
The concept of the flow was proposed by psychologist named Dr. Mihály Csíkszentmihályi(pronounced as Me-High-Chick-Sent-Me-High).
As it seems from pursuing some literature about the flow : When in flow, the whole spectrum of mind and matter works in collaboration to push beyond the limit of normal-physical capabilities, and brings in benefits for performance improvement and creativity.
Associated with increased dopamine level in the brain, the concept of flow finds its place in the void between the speculative and the the empirical. May be its the same void where the Unified theory for physics resides or where the theory of self-awaress can be found by the neuroscience. and what if that void is beyond Plank's length?
as correctly pointed out by someone:
"when logic dies, truth emerges through the eyes"
As it seems from pursuing some literature about the flow : When in flow, the whole spectrum of mind and matter works in collaboration to push beyond the limit of normal-physical capabilities, and brings in benefits for performance improvement and creativity.
Associated with increased dopamine level in the brain, the concept of flow finds its place in the void between the speculative and the the empirical. May be its the same void where the Unified theory for physics resides or where the theory of self-awaress can be found by the neuroscience. and what if that void is beyond Plank's length?
as correctly pointed out by someone:
"when logic dies, truth emerges through the eyes"
Sunday, January 6, 2008
bit bang
One thing for sure, our nature has an incessantly amarthine potential to manufacture maniacs. We have yet another one, who says the whole universe is a computer and we all are god-damn simulations.
I couldn't believe it, neither do I think many will. why?
simply because philosophical elaborations, for something as real as universe, undermine the efforts and hard-work of those who give their entire life trying to seek experimental evidence.
simply because philosophical elaborations, for something as real as universe, undermine the efforts and hard-work of those who give their entire life trying to seek experimental evidence.
If I understand probabilities and quantum superpositions well: reality is defined by what the majority of world is convinced about, and not by what a bunch of maniacs contemplate under controlled environments.
Afterall, something is real only when it has been measured. isn't it so professor?
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